Following is the information available pertaining to shares of O Ltd.: Current Market Price (₹) ₹ 840.00 Maximum Expected Price (₹) in 6 Months,…
CA Final · Advanced Financial Management · MTP · November 2026
Following is the information available pertaining to shares of O Ltd.: Current Market Price (₹) ₹ 840.00 Maximum Expected Price (₹) in 6 Months, with a 45% Probability ₹ 1050.00 Minimum Expected Price (₹) in 6 Months ₹ 756.00 Continuously Compounded Rate of Interest (p.a.) (%) 7.00% Required:(i) Assuming that a 6-month European call option on the shares of O Ltd. is available with a strike price of ₹ 900.00, calculate the value of the call option using the Replicating Portfolio Approach and the Risk-Neutral Valuation Method.(ii) Examine whether the given probability can be applied to determine the value of the option using the Risk-Neutral Valuation Method.Note: (1) e 0.035 =1.0356(2) Round off all calculations upto 2 decimal points.
Suggested Answer and Working Notes:
(A) Call Option value using Replicating Portfolio Approach₹1050 (150)₹840₹756 (0)Δ = (₹150 - ₹0) / (₹1050 - ₹756) = 0.51Initial Investment= 0.51 x 840 = ₹ 428.40Value of Portfolio if Price goes down to ₹ 756.Value of holding 0.51 x ₹ 756 = ₹ 385.56Accordingly Let ‘P' be the option price, then428.40 - P = ₹385.56/1.0356 = ₹372.31P = ₹ 56.09(B) Value of Call Option using Risk Neutral MethodLet 'P' be the probability of Price increase, thenp x 1050 + (1-p) x 756 = 840(1.0356)147p = 50.48p = 0.39Probability of Price increase = 0.39Probability of Price decrease= 0.61Accordingly, the price of the options shall be:(0.39 × 150 + 0.61×0) / 1.0356 = ₹ 56.49(ii) In Risk Neutral Model, valuation of options is based on arbitrage and is therefore independent of risk preferences; one should be able to value options assuming any set of risk preferences and get the same answer. Hence, the given probability cannot be used to value the option. Instead, the risk-neutral probability should be computed and used for valuing the option.
Topics: Derivatives Analysis & Valuation
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